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UFC Vegas 122: Allen vs. Duncan continues on the prelims with a fight between Niko Price and Leon Shahbazyan in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 122 odds series for our Price-Shahbazyan prediction and pick.
Niko Price (16-11, 8-11 UFC) returns from retirement following four consecutive defeats. Michael Chiesa submitted him with a first-round rear-naked choke in March, after Nikolay Veretennikov knocked him out in February, leaving the veteran seeking redemption as he comes into his fight this weekend against Leon Shahbazyan on Saturday.
Leon Shahbazyan (12-5, 0-1 UFC) suffered a 23-second TKO loss to Levan Chokheli in his June promotional debut. Previously, he submitted Robert Hale with a first-round armbar in March, extending his winning streak to four before that setback, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Niko Price on Saturday.
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UFC Vegas 122 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings:
UFC Vegas 122 Odds: Niko Price-Leon Shahbazyan Odds
Niko Price: +120
Leon Shahbazyan: -142
Over 1.5 Rounds: +180
Under 1.5 Rounds: -238
Why Niko Price Will Win
Niko Price’s strongest route to victory is turning this matchup into a sustained striking battle rather than an early grappling scramble. Shahbazyan lasted just twenty-three seconds against Levan Chokheli in his UFC debut, giving Price a vulnerability to target with pressure.
Price should attack behind combinations, making Shahbazyan defend punches before he can comfortably initiate takedowns or hunt submissions during close exchanges. The objective is not reckless aggression but consistent work that forces an inexperienced UFC opponent to make difficult decisions under fire.
Shahbazyan’s submission threat demands respect, especially because Price has recently struggled against opponents who capitalize on scrambles and exposed defensive positions. Protecting his neck and refusing unnecessary ground exchanges would keep the fight closer to the scenario that best suits Price’s offense.
The longer this contest lasts, the stronger the case becomes for Price’s experience and ability to maintain output in later rounds. Shahbazyan has far less experience in extended fights, making a competitive opening round something Price can survive rather than necessarily win.
Price’s recent results prevent this from being a confident selection, but Shahbazyan has not established himself as a dependable UFC performer. I favor Price to weather the early danger, increase his pressure and earn a late stoppage.
Why Leon Shahbazyan Will Win
Leon Shahbazyan’s strongest route to beating Niko Price is his submission game, with eleven of his twelve victories coming through grappling. That finishing record gives him a clear objective: avoid extended striking exchanges and force Price into defensive scrambles before the veteran establishes momentum.
Price enters after four consecutive defeats, including a submission loss to Michael Chiesa, making his recent ground defense an obvious concern. Shahbazyan should attack that weakness immediately rather than give Price time to settle into a comfortable rhythm on the feet.
The key is creating transitions, where an exposed neck or isolated arm can become more valuable than prolonged positional control. Shahbazyan can use clinches and takedown attempts to manufacture those opportunities, forcing Price to prioritize defense instead of launching his own offense.
Price remains dangerous with his punches, particularly against an opponent whose five professional losses have all come by knockout. However, Shahbazyan can reduce that risk by closing distance behind measured entries rather than lingering in exchanges that favor Price’s power.
This is not a matchup Shahbazyan should approach as a test of toughness or a prolonged contest of striking volume. I expect him to pursue grappling early, capitalize on a scramble and secure a submission victory before Price’s experience takes over.
Final Niko Price-Leon Shahbazyan Prediction & Pick
Leon Shahbazyan is my pick to beat Niko Price, with his submission attack offering the clearest finishing opportunity. Eleven of Shahbazyan’s twelve victories have come through submissions, highlighting his grappling threat.
Price remains dangerous in striking exchanges, particularly against an opponent whose professional defeats have all come by knockout. Shahbazyan must avoid trading recklessly and instead prioritize closing distance behind controlled entries.
The matchup becomes favorable for Shahbazyan if he can force scrambles before Price establishes his rhythm. Price’s recent submission loss to Michael Chiesa provides reason to question his defensive reliability there.
However, Shahbazyan’s brief UFC debut exposed his own vulnerability, so this prediction carries uncertainty despite the stylistic opportunity. Price can punish a careless approach if Shahbazyan enters range without adequately protecting himself.
I expect Shahbazyan to pursue clinches and takedowns immediately rather than test Price’s punching power. Once a scramble develops, his submission instincts should create the decisive opening for an early finish.
Final Niko Price-Leon Shahbazyan Prediction & Pick: Leon Shahbazyan (-142), UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-238)
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