Texas vs Florida football predictions: Betting lines, TV channel/streaming for SEC game

After a stunning, last-second setback to rival Oklahoma, Texas football doesn’t have time to lick its wounds.  

The No. 7 Longhorns (4-1, 1-1 SEC) face stumbling Florida (4-2, 2-2) Saturday morning at Royal-Memorial Stadium. With a second straight loss to the Gators, Texas would be on the verge of losing any hopes of a spot in the College Football Playoff. But a victory would right the ship for the Longhorns, especially if beleaguered quarterback Arch Manning and an error-prone special teams can trim the mistakes and play a clean game.

Under first-year coach Jon Sumrall and breakout running back Jadan Baugh, Florida became one of the early-season darlings of college football after knocking off Ole Miss and climbing into the top 10 of the AP rankings. But the Gators have fallen out of the poll following two straight losses, and a porous Florida defense has given up a combined 83 points over the past two weeks to Missouri and South Carolina.

Here’s a full scouting report for the Texas Longhorns vs. the Florida Gators. 

No. 7 Texas (4-1, 1-1 SEC) vs. Florida (4-2, 2-2) 

When: 11 a.m. Saturday

Where: Royal-Memorial Stadium 

TV/radio: ABC, 1300, 98.1, 105.3 (Spanish)

Weather: Finally, football weather. A Friday cold front drops the temperatures near 50 degrees at kickoff and won’t rise much above 70. There may be a few clouds but not much chance of rain.

Texas vs Florida football betting info

Moneyline: Texas -205, Florida +195

Spread: Texas is favored by 10½ points.

Over/under: 52½

Texas history: Florida

All-time: Texas leads 3-1-1

Last meeting:  Florida 29, Texas 21  (Oct. 4, 2025)

Most memorable meeting: Texas 7, Florida 7 (1924).

A reported crowd of approximately 10,000 fans filled Clark Field, the current location of the Caven Lacrosse and Sports Center across San Jacinto Boulevard from Royal-Memorial Stadium. The Longhorns held on to the tie by stopping heralded Gator fullback Bill Middlekauff four times inside their own 3-yard line in the final minute of the game. 

MORE: ‘Everything we want is is still right in front of us’: Texas football eyes glimmer of hope

MORE: Gators QB Aaron Philo uncertain to play due to reported injury

Know the foe: Florida

Last week: Lost to South Carolina, 38-19

Players to watch: RB Jadan Baugh, a 6-foot-1, 225-pound junior, serves as the centerpiece of the Gator offense. He ranks third in the SEC with 672 yards rushing and leads the conference with 12 rushing touchdowns. In two games against Texas over the past two seasons, he racked up 195 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. 

QB Aaron Philo, a 6-1, 207-pound junior transfer from Georgia Tech, has been solid if not spectacular, but he may miss the Texas game with an injury. He’s thrown for 1,341 yards on 70.5% passing with nine touchdowns and three interceptions and has added 104 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

Edge Jayden Woods, a 6-3, 245-pound sophomore, may not quite be at the level of Texas All-American edge Colin Simmons, but he’s getting closer. The twitchy pass rusher has 4 ½ sacks and six tackles for a loss, and he’ll test the Longhorn pass protection.

Central Texas connections: Senior TJ Shananan Jr., a graduate of Westlake High School in Austin, has started all six games at right guard after spending two seasons at Texas A&M and one year at Penn State.

When Texas has the ball

This seems like a get-right game for Manning, who ranks seventh in the SEC with 224.4 yards a game on 63% passing with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. Over the past two games against Missouri’s Austin Simmons and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, Florida’s pass defense has allowed a combined 619 yards on 70.8% passing with six touchdown passes and no interceptions. Those two quarterbacks averaged 13.5 yards per completion against the Gators, which could mean lots of action downfield for Texas receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo.

Will freshman Derrek Cooper get more snaps at running back for Texas? He showed flashes with a team-high 41 yards rushing against Oklahoma but averages just 3.5 yards per carry for the season. That’s even lower than the Longhorns’ paltry team average of 3.7 yards a carry. Buoyed by linebacker Myles Graham (41 tackles), the Gators have been respectable against the run while allowing 124.3 yards a game and 3.9 yards a carry.

When Florida has the ball

Florida won’t shy away from the run. It ranks fifth in the SEC with 200.3 yards rushing a game and averages more than 5 yards a carry as a team. Baugh carries the load, but dynamic Duke Clark (265 yards rushing, 7.4 yards per carry) provides an intriguing change of pace. Texas allows just 96 yards rushing a game and 2.8 yards a carry, but linebackers Rasheem Biles (42 tackles) and Justin Cryer (27) are most effective using their speed to chase down backs instead of having to take on linemen.

Texas outside corners Bo Mascoe and Kade Phillips have had issues this season, especially when it comes to drawing flags. Florida could test that pair as well as the rest of the secondary if healthy, but that’s a big question mark entering Saturday’s game. Dallas Wilson (26 catches, 376 yards, three touchdowns) had a breakout game against Texas last season. However, fellow wideout Vernell Brown III has missed the past two games with a knee injury. Brown has 17 receptions for 271 yards and two touchdowns in four games and has also returned two punts for a touchdown.

Texas vs Florida key matchup

Texas center Connor Robertson vs. Florida noseguard Brendan Bett

Brendan Bett, a 6-4, 320-pound transfer from Baylor, anchors the interior of the Gators’ 3-4 front from his noseguard spot. He’s been active with 15 total tackles and three tackles for a loss but doesn’t play at the level of the linemen from Oklahoma, Ohio State or Tennessee. If Robertson and guards Dylan Sikorski and Brandon Baker can’t clear some running lanes against Bett and the Gators, they may never get the ground game going.

Texas vs Florida prediction

Thomas Jones: Texas 34, Florida 16. Barring any more special teams disasters or unacceptable turnovers, the Longhorns should have too much firepower for a reeling Florida defense.

Danny Davis: Texas. I doubt the offense will have solved all of its problems over the past week, and don’t get me started on the special teams. But only minimal improvement from Arch’s bunch will be necessary if the Longhorns continue to play well against the run and subdue Jadan Baugh.

Cedric Golden: Texas 27, Florida 20. The Horns respond in favorable fashion but questions remain about this offense and its inability to run the ball.

Michael Shapiro: Texas 35, Florida 20. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian will get his wish for a fast start with the Longhorns back at Royal-Memorial Stadium, where they enter Saturday eyeing their 24th victory in the last 25 home games.

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This article originally published at Texas vs Florida football predictions: Betting lines, TV channel/streaming for SEC game.