Ahead of Week 5 in NFL Survivor contests, you had to choose between several unappealing options:
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A big home favorite on Thursday night
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The always-wacky London game
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A team with its two star receivers questionable to play on the road
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A game where the underdog took enough money that the betting line moved from -7.5 through the key number of -7, to -6.
Who could blame those taking the lone home team of the group, the Cowboys, to top the 0-4 Buccaneers? After all, even before Tampa Bay lost starting quarterback Baker Mayfield, the Bucs had disappointed to a level where they’d lost many others their Survivor entries at home to the Browns in Week 2.
So, when Dallas went down on Thursday Night Football, it wiped out almost half of the remaining entries in Circa Sports’ massive Survivor contest:
Week 5 results from the Circa NFL Survivor Contest.
(Circa Sports)
With just over 10% of the original participants remaining in most any Survivor pool, the number remaining in your pool changes the calculus when it comes to strategy. After all, the fewer the entrants, the less conceptual risk is necessary each week.
Here is my Week 6 Survivor pool analysis.
Each week (until we’ve exhausted all reasonable paths of survival), we look at the Survivor Contest landscape, and the best options available, while understanding that it matters who you’ve already taken, and what you might be giving up by burning a team that week.
Week 6 moneylines
How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability.
The favorite, money line and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 6.
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL — an unnerving thought.
Here’s a list of the current top 18 teams (with help from the betting market), and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
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Rams: 19.7
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Bills: 18.6
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Seahawks: 18.6
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Chiefs: 17.8
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Jaguars, 49ers: 17.6
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Bears: 16.7
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Bengals: 16.5
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Texans, Patriots: 16.2
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Lions: 15.9
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Ravens: 15.4
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Cowboys, Vikings: 14.6
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Broncos: 14.3
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Packers: 14.0
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Panthers: 13.5
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Eagles: 13.2
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use it later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in September is nerve-wracking, but doing so at some point in December is real tension.
Week 6’s top choices
As we look at the best options for Week 6 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from that pick. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using it now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups).
Patriots (75.9%) over Jets
With roughly 30% of Survivor entrants still having the Chiefs available, and just 14% with the 49ers free to pick (according to Circa Sports’ Survivor availability matrix), the Patriots aren’t the biggest favorite in Week 6, but they might be the best option this week against the Jets.
Estimated Availability: 93.7%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 8 at Miami (NE -7.5)
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Week 18 vs. Dolphins (NE -10.5)
In Week 8, the Bengals host the Titans. Of course, you could also just trust the Cowboys to beat the Cardinals (a team they lost to last year on Monday Night Football), if you didn’t get enough of a scare on Halloween the night before.
Like any attractive Week 18 matchup, you never know if that game will matter to New England. However, if you don’t take the Pats in October, you’ll have that last regular-season game in your back pocket for January.
Rams (87.6%) over Cardinals
As reflected in the money-line odds and implied win probability, the Rams — far better than their 2-3 record reflects — aren’t likely to lose at home to the Cardinals. The further away we get from Arizona’s season-opening win over the Chargers, the less impressive that gets, and a second win at SoFi Stadium isn’t in the cards for the Cards.
Estimated Availability: 97.1%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 8 vs. Chargers (LAR -9)
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Week 10 at Arizona (LAR -10)
It’s something of a classic fork in the road, since Survivor competitors could go “Rams now and the Patriots in Week 8” or “Patriots now and the Rams in Week 8.” It’s entirely possible that both paths result in Survival, but it’s still a choice that could lead to demise.
Colts (74.9%) over Titans
The dark horse pick of the week, as it often does, comes in an effort to fade the Titans. The Colts are on the brink of being a top-18 team in the NFL, but not all of those teams have a home game with the Titans on their schedule.
Estimated Availability: 96.4%
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 10 vs. Dolphins (IND -6.5)
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Week 12 vs. Giants (IND -5.5)
The Colts also have a home game with the other 2026 Survivor patsy (the Dolphins in Week 10), so there is an option to save Indianapolis for that matchup. However, that might be best used as a “just in case” play should something happen with the Rams, and/or either of the other big road favorites (Jaguars at Titans, Bills at Jets) that it looks like will be in the mix if you’re still alive in four weeks.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.