Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight sluggers Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Oct. 10, 2026) inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 122.
Allen enters this fight in a rather unusual position. His upset victory over Reinier de Ridder last year should have pushed him back into the title mix; however, high-profile bouts aren’t materializing for “All-In.” Perhaps as a result of earlier losses to top contenders, Allen is being forced to fight down for a third time in a row.
Perhaps victory here can finally score him that long-awaited grudge match versus Dricus du Plessis? Just no more “finesse.”
Duncan is no easy task, however. The English striker is starting to live up to his potential, winning five in a row as well as seven of his last eight. A dynamic kickboxer with knockout power, Duncan could vastly improve his own position in the title picture with a victory in his first-ever main event opportunity.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Allen vs. Duncan Betting Odds
-
Brendan Allen victory: -138
-
Brendan Allen via TKO/KO/DQ: +850
-
Brendan Allen via submission: +300
-
Brendan Allen via decision: +250
-
Christian Leroy Duncan victory: +108
-
Christian Leroy Duncan via TKO/KO/DQ: +240
-
Christian Leroy Duncan via submission: +2500
-
Christian Leroy Duncan via decision: +500
-
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Allen Wins
Allen is a well-rounded Middleweight, particularly offensively. He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with great back attacks, a very capable wrestler, and has potent combinations of punches, kicks and knees. Historically, he’s a little too easy to hit, which has cost him on several different occasions.
It’s a concern here as well.
Fortunately, Allen’s well-roundedness is a great advantage. We have seen Duncan struggle with his output when forced to defend against both threatening combinations and genuine takedowns. By mixing up his attacks, Allen can quite possibly outstrike the “cleaner” kickboxer.
It also helps that Allen is well-equipped to counter a couple key Duncan traits. For one, Duncan often likes to crash into the clinch, a position where Allen is the superior wrestler and in-fighter. If Duncan leaps forward with a right, lands in the clinch, and eats a knee or elbow for his trouble, he’s less likely to advance. Similarly, Duncan loves to spin, and Allen is an excellent backtaker.
One well-timed side step could produce a strange for Allen or at least make Duncan think twice before utilizing one of his key weapons.
How Duncan Wins
Duncan is a tall and athletic Middleweight who fights with a traditional martial arts flair. He stands side-on and controls distance well, aided by that formidable 79-inch reach. Unlike most Karate-style kickboxers, he’s actually more dangerous while initiating, stepping forward with long, powerful straight punches, explosive kicks, or his favored spinning techniques.
As mentioned above, Duncan will want to be careful with his spinning strikes here. He shouldn’t abandon them entirely — they’re a core part of his offense — but Duncan has to feint often and only throw them when appropriate. For example, if Allen is along the fence and covering up because of the threat of punches, a spin kick to the gut would be perfectly appropriate.
Though Duncan fights well moving forward, the threat of the reactive takedown while over-extending might actually cause him to shift strategies here. Allen is chronically aggressive and has been walked onto heavy counter punches by men like Sean Strickland and even Chris Curtis. If Duncan chooses to really trust in his jab, he could pop Allen in the face, retreat and then try to time a heavier blow as Allen steps forward.
Allen vs. Duncan Prediction
I have mixed feelings about this matchup, as I don’t particularly trust either man. Allen is the more experienced veteran, but he’s also somewhat prone to falling apart when he starts to lose the standup. Duncan, meanwhile, is still making mistakes in how he manages distance. If he’s not careful, he’ll walk right onto a takedown or give up his back spinning, two possible mistakes that could drastically alter the course of the fight.
If Duncan stays composed and feeds Allen one-two combinations, he should win here. If Allen smartly blends his pocket boxing, clinch striking, and offensive wrestling, he should win here.
Who to trust? I’ll side with momentum. Duncan is still just in his sixth year as a professional, and things seemed to start clicking in early 2024. Two years later, he should be further on the path towards becoming an elite Middleweight. Conversely, we have likely already seen Allen’s best and been left wanting in the past.
A close decision either way wouldn’t shock me, nor would an early Allen strangle. However, in a tossup, siding with the more athletic up-and-comer isn’t the worst idea.