We’ve said goodbye to the Phillies and Cubs, and then to the Braves and Padres. What does that leave? The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the National League in a rematch of last year’s NLCS.
It’s Dodgers vs. Brewers with a trip to the World Series on the line. Let’s break it down.
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How they got here
Dodgers: L.A.’s star-studded rotation carried the day against Atlanta in the NLDS, with a 1.69 ERA in 21 ⅓ innings of work. Tarik Skubal (Game 1) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Game 3) were sensational. Tyler Glasnow (Game 4) was erratic but effective. Only Blake Snell (3 ⅔ innings in Game 2) disappointed. An aging Dodgers offense did enough to support the pitching staff, thanks to timely long balls from veterans Kiké Hernández, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy. It wasn’t an emphatic, resounding performance by any means, but the Dodgers got the job done in Round 1 of their three-peat quest.
Brewers: Milwaukee snapped a 12-game postseason road losing streak with its Game 4 NLDS-clinching win at Petco Park. That might be yet another sign that this Brewers team is for real, ready to reach the World Series for just the second time in franchise history and first since 1982. Run prevention, as always, won the day for Milwaukee against San Diego, with a sparkling 2.5 runs allowed per game. That came in spite of an uncharacteristically shaky defensive display — the Brewers made five errors across the four games. It wasn’t exactly a dominant showing from the offense, either, but Milwaukee’s lineup kept the line moving and caused enough chaos to dispatch the Padres in a hard-fought series.
X-factors
Dodgers: Will Smith and Shohei Ohtani
This duo went a dismal 3-for-29 with 11 strikeouts and zero extra-base hits against the Braves. Yet somehow, Smith and Ohtani looked even worse than that combined line. It’s difficult to envision the Dodgers moving on if these two crucial cogs continue to struggle to that extent.
Ohtani, surely, is playing at less than 100 percent, having never fully recovered from the litany of late-season ailments that pushed him to the IL for the first time in his Dodgers career. He looks skittish, uncertain and uncomfortable at the plate. That’s precipitating uncharacteristically questionable swing decisions, which, in turn, are putting him in bad counts and leading to bad outcomes. The four-time MVP is still capable of brilliance — he’s less than a year removed from the greatest single-game performance of all time in NLCS Game 4 — but that magic feels less likely from this reduced version of Ohtani.
Smith is a more bizarre story. He missed nearly three months during the regular season but came back on Sept. 1 and looked like his best self for much of the final month (.948 September OPS). But his swing mechanics — at their best, the epitome of do-simple-perfect — are completely out of whack right now. He’s still providing oodles of value with his presence behind the plate, but this is not the game-changing offensive force who clocked the World Series-winning blast last year.
Brewers: Jackson Chourio
The 22-year-old had just three hits in Milwaukee’s NLDS victory, but all three came in massive moments. There was the game-tying, two-run homer off Robbie Ray in Game 1, the walk-off single against Mason Miller in Game 2 and the go-ahead, laser-beam single in Game 4. But while that timeliness is wonderful, a bit more production from Chourio feels like the easiest way for Milwaukee’s offense to level up against the Dodgers. He’s easily the most talented Brewers hitter and already the franchise’s all-time postseason home run leader. Last year, Chourio blasted Milwaukee’s only long ball against L.A. in the NLCS and was one of two Brewers with at least three hits in that series. For a team to go deep in October, special players need to do special things. There might not be a more special talent on the field (besides a healthy Ohtani) than this guy.
It’s a Dodgers vs. Brewers rematch with a trip to the World Series on the line.
(Dillon Minshall/Yahoo Sports)
How they win
Dodgers: Starting pitching + something else
The Dodgers’ rotation, at this point, feels as reliable as any unit in the sport. But if L.A.’s offense continues to underwhelm, that might be enough. They need either (1) a few more hitters to step up, (2) a total lockdown showing from the bullpen or (3) near-perfection from the already brilliant rotation. Option No. 1 is easily the likeliest path to victory. The Dodgers have so many talented, October-proven bats that it feels inevitable that one or more of Ohtani, Smith, Teoscar Hernández, Mookie Betts or Andy Pages will catch fire. How many do and to what extent will likely determine whether the Dodgers reach the World Series for the third straight year. But Option No. 2 is a possibility as well. Or, if Skubal and Yamamoto both dominate in both of their starts, that might be enough.
Brewers: By not swinging at balls
In the 2025 regular season, Milwaukee had MLB’s lowest chase rate at 25.5%. But in their NLCS capitulation against the Dodgers, that number skyrocketed to 34.5%. Come October, some jump in chase rate is expected; the best pitchers are throwing harder and more often. Still, that’s an unsustainably high spike, and it sank the Brewers’ offense.
This regular season, the Brewers once again led the sport in chase rate at 26.8%, setting up an unstoppable force against an immovable object in the NLCS. Los Angeles’ pitching staff ranked first in chase rate at 33.1%. Skubal, Snell and Yamamoto all ranked in the 85th percentile.
Laying off pitches outside the strike zone, particularly early in counts, would be a total game-changer for this low-power Brewers offense. Doing so would force Dodgers hurlers into hitter’s counts, run pitch counts higher and bring the bullpen in play earlier. That’s when damage happens. Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, Andrew Vaughn, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick and Brice Turang were all 20th percentile in chase rat. They’ll need to keep that going. And Milwaukee’s most swing-happy character, Chourio, has to stay disciplined.
How they lose
Dodgers: Blake Snell bombs again
In the NLDS, Los Angeles used Snell in Game 2 and Yamamoto in Game 3, but they’re likely to swap those two for the NLCS. That decision could have an interesting trickle-down effect if Snell and Glasnow can’t work deep in games. Splitting up Snell and Glasnow against Atlanta meant that Los Angeles’ bullpen wouldn’t need to cover a multitude of innings on back-to-back days. But with Skubal and Yamamoto lined up for two starts each in his series, the Dodgers won’t have that luxury this time around. Getting any semblance of length from Snell could be critical.
Brewers: A rerun of last year
The 2025 Brewers looked completely overmatched against the Los Angeles pitching staff throughout that brief NLCS. But while their lineup is markedly better this go-around, Milwaukee’s offense still operates with that same high-contact, low-power style. That strategy worked well enough against a good, not great, Padres staff, but this Dodgers group is a different beast. Milwaukee’s run prevention apparatus, at this point, has proven itself capable of keeping scores low and games close, no matter who’s on the mound. But the Brewers can’t win ballgames 0-0.
Series prediction: Brewers in 7
The gap has closed.
Last year, Milwaukee’s offense was helpless against Los Angeles’ pitching staff, while the Ohtani-led Dodgers lineup hummed against the Brewers’ arms. But this aging Dodgers position-player group looks shakier than ever, and the Brewers’ bats have all leveled up. To win the series, Milwaukee will need to win at least one game started by Skubal or Yamamoto. That’s a tough task, but I think they’re up for the fight and that Chourio has enough pixie dust to knock off baseball’s big, bad juggernaut in what should be an unforgettable battle.