TST Best Bets: October 11, 2026

We’re picking every game on the NFL’s Week 5 Sunday slate, with another Lock of the Week to lead the way. Last week’s 5-7-2 record wasn’t quite what we wanted, but a few close calls left us within reach of a winning Sunday. With another week to get a better feel for these teams, let’s turn that into a bounceback performance.

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Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Oct 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) reacts to wide receiver Nico Collins (12) touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at Reliant Stadium.

Lock of the Week: Houston Texans -7 over the Tennessee Titans

Rundown: We’ve already seen what desperation can do for a winless team in Week 5, as the Buccaneers upset a Cowboys team coming off an impressive win over Houston.

Both teams enter this matchup at 0-4, but the Texans are the ones who came into the season expecting to contend for a playoff spot. Three of Houston’s losses have come down to the final possession, and its 17th-place ranking in total team DVOA gives us more reason to believe this team is better than its record.

Tennessee offers much less reason for optimism, ranking 29th in total team DVOA and 27th in offensive EPA. This is a chance for Houston to finally put a complete game together, and I expect the Texans to get their first win in decisive fashion.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles

Rundown: The line for this London matchup has moved significantly toward Jacksonville, and it’s easy to see why after the week Philadelphia has had.

The Eagles surrendered a 10-point lead by allowing two late touchdowns against the Rams, then saw their offensive line unravel with Lane Johnson’s sudden retirement and Cam Jurgens’ trade to Baltimore. With Saquon Barkley also out after suffering a hamstring injury last week, there’s plenty working against this offense.

Jacksonville already looks like one of the league’s best teams, and without its fourth-quarter collapse in Denver in Week 2, we’d be talking about a 4-0 team with a strong case as the NFL’s best. Laying a touchdown and the hook gives me some pause, but against a depleted Eagles team that is 0-4 against the spread, I’m backing the Jaguars to cover.

Green Bay Packers +1 over the Chicago Bears

Rundown: Chicago being favored at Lambeau Field with a backup quarterback says plenty about how much this rivalry has shifted. This is essentially a pick’em, but I’m taking Green Bay at home.

All three meetings last season delivered, with the Bears winning twice. Still, Chicago needed an onside kick to pull off its late-season win and a historic comeback to take the playoff matchup. That season series could have looked very different.

The Packers haven’t been particularly impressive through four weeks, but they’ve shown they can bring their best against Chicago. I don’t see the Bears coming into Green Bay with a backup quarterback and leaving with a win.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 over the Miami Dolphins

Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Demetrius Knight Jr. (44) celebrates a defensive stop in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 4 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. The Bengals fell to 2-2 on the season with a 22-17 loss at home.

Rundown: Miami covered for the first time this season against undefeated Minnesota last week, and a Chris Bell touchdown wiped out by a borderline illegal touching call might have cost the Dolphins their first win.

Still, this defense looks like an ideal matchup for Joe Burrow and his elite receiving duo. Miami ranks fourth in EPA per rush allowed but 31st against the pass, giving a Bengals team that has struggled to run the ball plenty of reason to keep throwing, even with a lead.

Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both questionable, but full participation in Friday’s practice points toward both playing. With those two available, I expect Cincinnati to put up big numbers through the air and cover the touchdown spread.

Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 over the New England Patriots

David Brytus-Imagn Images

Oct 4, 2026; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) prepares to take a snap against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium.

Rundown: I think the Raiders are the better team here, so I’ll gladly take a field goal and the hook on the road.

Week 4 looked more like what people expected from these teams entering the season, as Las Vegas took its first loss and New England shook off a rough three-game start to upset undefeated Buffalo. Still, the Raiders played well in Kansas City, with a muffed punt return helping swing that game toward the Chiefs.

Drake Maye deserves credit for his second half against Buffalo, but the turnover-worthy plays that have been an issue this season were still there before halftime. A poor late decision from Josh Allen also helped New England escape. I’m backing Las Vegas to win outright and give the sportsbooks more reason to take this team seriously.

Minnesota Vikings -1 over the New Orleans Saints

Rundown: Minnesota has been the least convincing of the remaining undefeated teams, with an offense that has stalled far too often through four games. Still, this defense gives me plenty of reason to back the Vikings here.

Brian Flores’ aggressive blitz packages have fueled one of the season’s most impressive coaching jobs, and Tyler Shough looks like a prime target. The young quarterback has shown flashes, but his rough stretches have featured risky throws and turnover-worthy plays.

Flores has a track record of making life miserable for inexperienced quarterbacks, and I expect Shough to struggle with the pressure and disguised looks coming his way. Give me Minnesota’s defense to make the difference and the Vikings to cover the short number.

Cleveland Browns +1 over the New York Jets

Rundown: I have to admit I gave the Jets too much credit for their first two games, when they beat Tennessee handily and then narrowly lost to Green Bay in overtime.

With Chicago starting a backup quarterback, last week’s matchup didn’t draw much attention, which helped bury just how pitiful New York’s performance was. The Jets ran only 32 offensive plays while allowing 34 first downs to a Tyson Bagent-led offense.

I have a hard time putting any money on the Jets against a good offense when we’ve seen how low their own offense can sink. Chicago’s defense has improved recently, but it’s nowhere near elite, making that showing even harder to excuse.

Indianapolis Colts +2.5 over the Pittsburgh Steelers

Rundown: Pittsburgh’s offense looks like one that can only get going against terrible defenses, and I don’t think Indianapolis totally falls into that category.

Aaron Rodgers’ limitations at this stage of his career leave the Steelers with little room to operate in the drop-back passing game. He wants the ball out quickly, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have the playmakers to consistently turn those short throws into big gains.

The Colts aren’t a great defensive team, but they’ve been solid on that side of the ball in their last two victories. I expect them to keep building on that momentum and win outright on the road.

Washington Commanders -3.5 over the New York Giants

Rundown: Jayden Daniels’ surprise return means we won’t get a reunion between the top two picks of the 2015 NFL Draft. Marcus Mariota won their first meeting convincingly, throwing four touchdowns in Tennessee’s 42-14 season-opening win while Jameis Winston finished with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Washington gets its star quarterback back, while New York is left hoping for the better side of the Winston experience. After the Giants offense looked inept in his first two appearances this season, last week against Arizona brought back the familiar version of Winston who lets it fly and leaves you wondering which team will catch it.

I’m expecting that approach to hurt New York this week. With Daniels back and Winston capable of giving away possessions, give me the Commanders to win and cover.

Denver Broncos -3.5 over the Los Angeles Chargers

Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Sep 27, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton reacts during the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at Empower Field at Mile High.

Rundown: Things look a little murky in Denver with Sean Payton taking playcalling duties back from Davis Webb after just four games, but the Chargers’ injury situation makes it hard to pass on this matchup.

Los Angeles has ruled out Joe Alt, Kayode Awosika, Donte Jackson, Derwin James, Quentin Johnston, Brenen Thompson and Trevor Penning. Rashawn Slater is also on injured reserve, with Penning and backup quarterback Trey Lance joining him. Ladd McConkey remains questionable, leaving Justin Herbert with battered protection and a depleted receiving group.

The playcalling change and the drama surrounding it give Denver plenty to sort out, but I just don’t see Payton letting his return end in a loss to this snakebitten Chargers team. Give me the Broncos to take advantage and cover.

Arizona Cardinals +5.5 over the Detroit Lions

Rundown: This is too many points to lay with Detroit on the road when its defense might be the worst in the league.

Carolina torched the Lions secondary last week, and Michael Wilson and Trey McBride should have plenty of opportunities to do damage against that same group.

It’s hard to trust Detroit to pull away from anyone with its defense playing this poorly. Even if the Lions build a lead, the door will be wide open for Arizona to sneak inside the number late.

Seattle Seahawks -3 over the San Francisco 49ers

Rundown: Brock Purdy is the runaway MVP frontrunner through four games and has yet to be sacked or throw an interception this season.

That hot streak faces its biggest test against Seattle, as Mike Macdonald’s defense has been kryptonite for Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

The 49ers were outscored a combined 54-9 in those last two huge meetings with Seattle last season. Purdy’s start has been impressive, but I don’t expect him to shake this particular boogeyman so easily. Give me the Seahawks to disrupt his rhythm and cover at home.

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Oct 4, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks safety Nick Emmanwori (3) celebrates after a play against the Los Angeles Chargers during the second half at Lumen Field.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 over the Baltimore Ravens

Rundown: I don’t trust Baltimore to keep this offense moving without Lamar Jackson, particularly with injuries along the offensive line. Tyler Huntley has a tough assignment against an Atlanta defense that leads the league in quarterback pressures.

The Falcons also lead the league in run defense, so Derrick Henry won’t have an easy path to taking the pressure off his backup quarterback. I expect Atlanta to force Huntley into situations where he has to beat them through the air.

Atlanta has looked like a different team since Michael Penix Jr. returned, winning both games and running all over New Orleans last week. Baltimore should offer more resistance, but I’m backing Bijan Robinson and this revitalized offense to do enough at home to cover.