Given how White Sox manager Will Venable has had to deploy his pitching staff this postseason, back-to-back games were always going to be a challenge.
The sixth inning of ALDS Game 4 was when the frayed ropes may have snapped. It was a bad sign when Venable had to go to Grant Taylor that early in the game, and when even the best of his high-leverage arms couldn’t deliver, the Sox had little chance of clinching their first playoff series at home since 1906.
What ultimately became a 9-5 Game 4 loss means the White Sox will have to travel back to Cleveland on Saturday to try and extend their season.
The reality that his pitchers were somewhat taxed coming into Thursday’s game was apparent to Venable even before first pitch. With that in mind, he and his coaching staff went into the night looking to play against the familiarity of a division opponent who has already seen his pitchers in the regular season and the first three games of the division series.
“We’re just doing whatever we can to get outs. The inputs that we’re kind of calculating in how we go through this, certainly exposing our same pitchers to the same hitters is something we’re thinking about,” he said.
That has something to do with why Jordan Hicks was on the mound in the fifth inning and Taylor in the sixth. Those are two of Venable’s best arms in the bullpen, both of whom he’d prefer to use in the last third of a game.
But no matter when they’re called upon, those are guys who have to deliver. Hicks gave up a go-ahead home run to Jose Ramirez; Taylor allowed four runs without recording an out. They’re certainly not alone in coming up short, but as a duo they are an apt microcosm of the reality of the White Sox pitching staff.
“They just had good at-bats, made me come to them,” Taylor said. “Obviously two walks isn’t going to get the job done. Then when I did come in the zone, they put the ball in play and good things happened for them.”
In many ways, Thursday was a continuation of the Sox’ struggles in Game 3 the day before. The offense struck out too much and left too many runners on base, and the pitching staff put too many runners on and gave up untimely hits.
After 19 strikeouts on Wednesday, Sox batters fanned 12 times in Game 4. Between the two games, the pitchers gave up 17 free passes. That’s really hard to overcome.
“They’re making really good swing decisions. They’re making contact,” Venable said. “We talked about how good a job they do of doing that. When you walk guys, they make you pay. We were able to get away with it a couple times the first couple games. These last two, just weren’t able to.”
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If there’s any hope, it’s that the series isn’t over, and before the divisional finale in Cleveland, the White Sox will have a day off to rest the beleaguered pitching staff, at least a little. And when Game 5 comes, Sean Burke will take the ball in a burn the ships game for both teams.
Speaking after Thursday night’s loss, Venable did not specify how he would use Burke on Saturday, saying only that the righty “will be pitching in Game 5.” Venable has used an opener throughout the postseason thus far, and his postgame comments Thursday would seem to indicate he is going that route again. Sean Newcomb is a likely candidate; he opened Wednesday but did not pitch at all in Game 4. Otherwise, Noah Schultz was unused on Thursday — but he threw multiple innings in Game 3 — and David Sandlin didn’t pitch in Game 4 either.
Who opens in the series finale probably matters less than how Burke performs, whenever he ends up entering the game. The Sox’ hopes of advancing to the ALCS likely rest on his right arm.
“We’ve all got the utmost confidence in him,” Sam Antonacci said. “He goes out there and throws his pitches with conviction, and he’s able to get up and fill up the zone. So [we’re] not worried there.”
Burke was masterful in the White Sox’ Game 2 win in Cleveland, when he went 5 1/3 innings, striking out six batters and giving up just one run. His team will need something similar on Saturday, largely because it is not safe to assume that the bullpen has enough bullets left to hold onto a close lead.
There are other reasons for optimism about Game 5, one of those being that historical precedent suggests that it’s statistically unlikely that the Guardians win this series after being down 0-2. That’s only happened ten times in the history of five game playoff series, and eight of those were in the divisional rounds as we now know them.
The other side of that coin is that only two teams have won a best of five playoff series by winning three times on the road: the 2010 Texas Rangers and the 2012 San Francisco Giants. The White Sox would be joining very select company if they won on Saturday.
But perhaps that’s why this group has a chance. They’ve been outkicking their coverage all season, and just by making it to the second round of the postseason after posting three consecutive 100-loss campaigns, the White Sox have already established that they are an odds-defying team.
It’s also not terribly surprising that this series has ended up going five games. The Guardians only won the division by one game, and the White Sox went 7-6 against Cleveland in the regular season win a run differential of +1. This was always going to be close.
“We throw a punch, they throw a punch, and it almost feels like we know what’s coming and they know what’s coming,” Antonacci said. “They’ve gotten the best of those punches the last two nights, and we’re just looking to get the best of our punch on Saturday.”