Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the Gulf on Wednesday and is expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of the season, forecasters say.
According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the storm will strengthen as it moves toward the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week, becoming a hurricane by Thursday.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November, has not gone this late in the year without a hurricane since 1905, according to the Associated Press. A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes. This year, there have been nine named storms, and no hurricanes.
It’s unclear exactly where Isaias might make landfall. Current models show the center of Isaias coming onshore anywhere from eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties ahead of the storm.
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The NHC said there was “an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” adding that floods will be possible due to heavy rainfall. Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches from far southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Some areas could see up to 10 inches of rain.
Where is Isaias now and what is its path?
According to the hurricane center’s latest advisory, as of 5 a.m. ET on Wednesday:
Isaias was located about 580 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi
It had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph
It was moving east-northeast at 8 mph
Are there any warnings in effect?
There are currently no hurricane watches or warnings in effect. However, the hurricane center said hurricane watches would likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast later Wednesday.
What does El Niño have to do with hurricane season?
An unusually strong El Niño has contributed to the relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season by increasing wind shear — rapid changes in wind speed or direction with height — which can disrupt tropical storms and make it harder for them to strengthen into hurricanes.
By contrast, El Niño conditions have contributed to an unusually busy Pacific hurricane season. There have been 21 named storms and 10 hurricanes, both above historical averages. Last month’s Hurricane Polo became the third of the season to reach Category 5 intensity.
This article originally appeared on Yahoo News at https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/article/tropical-storm-isaias-tracker-first-atlantic-hurricane-of-the-season-expected-to-hit-us-gulf-coast-105030900.html