Who Will Win the WNBA Finals: Dream or Valkyries?

The WNBA Finals is set.

This series features the Defensive Player of the Year and the Sixth Player of the Year.

From the Atlanta Dream and the Golden State Valkyries’ matchups, the film says:

• The DPOTY will overwhelm the Valkyries

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• Valkyries’ bench shooting can be explosive or go ice cold at any given time

• Drawing or avoiding offensive fouls will be the deciding factor

The Angel Flies on Defense

Angel Reese won DPOTY having led the league in rebounds per game (12.1) and she was third in steals per game (1.8).

She can hold her ground on the perimeter with quicker guards.

Watch Reese anticipate the drive going right before creating a deflection and steal. When the rest of the defense feels no need to overload the gaps or commit to helping on the ball, it becomes a nightmare for opposing guards to find an advantage.

Here’s another example of the 24-year-old switching onto guards:

Reese gives up some air space so she doesn’t get blown by easily. Once again, she knows where the drive is going early, sinks down to put pressure on the ball and comes up with another pickpocket.

Janelle Salaun Must Go Lights Out

Janelle Salaun won Sixth Player of the Year and is no question the x-factor for the Valkyries.

Having set the record for most points total (12.7) and most 3-pointers by a reserve, Salaun has increased new standards for the award.

In a seven game series, typically the x-factors perform like a rollercoaster. The 25-year-old just needs to have four good shooting games and the Valkyries can take home the trophy. In three games against the Dream, Salaun hit 7 of 15 triples and averaged 9.3 points — that can contribute to four wins.

The Valkyries like to run this pick-and-pop for Salaun when the Dream sits in drop coverage.

Salaun sets the screen and with the Dream in drop coverage — the big stays in the lane to play the drive of the ball handler — Salaun pops out to the perimeter for a wide open 3-pointer.

On this pick-and-pop, Salaun re-screens to help find a better driving angle.

The Dream stayed in drop coverage. Perimeter shooting bigs will typically get a softer closeout where their counterparts do not leave their feet to challenge the shot because they are the last line of defense if they get blown by.

This gives Salaun time to launch a three ball without a threat of an aggressive closeout.

The Valkyries’ IQ for Drawing Offensive Fouls

In three regular season games against the Dream, the Valkyries drew eight offensive fouls.

Plays like these can swing momentum:

Cecilia Zandalasini peel switches onto the ball handler to prevent any driving lanes.

Gabby Williams sees her teammate switch and she veerback switches onto Zandalasini’s assignment.

Knowing that she is in legal guarding position, Zandalasini takes the elbow to the chest and that’s an easy offensive foul to call.

When things get chaotic, the Valkyries know how to eliminate it.

Keep an eye on Veronica Burton on this possession:

She can’t navigate a screen and has to guard a big trying to post her up. But keeping her eyes on the ball does wonders.

Burton does the next best thing: leave her assignment, see the drive and be in legal guarding position to draw a charge.

Final Thoughts and Prediction

The Valkyries are aiming to win the title in just year two as a franchise while the Dream have been swept in all three of their previous Finals appearances.

Atlanta in seven.

The post Who Will Win the WNBA Finals: Dream or Valkyries? appeared first on The Lead.