Comparing St Louis Cardinals projections from this spring to the end of season results

Now that I have opined regarding any praise that can be directed towards the 2026 Cardinals, as well as critiqued the sub .500 team, how did projections systems do in projecting outcomes?

Well as it turns out, ZiPS was very close to projecting the win total for the Cardinals. When I averaged several of the more accurate projections systems together, I found a 78 win ceiling. So the 2026 Cardinals could’ve realistically won about 1 more game than they did. This turned out to be the Pythagorean win total as well. It feels like the team could’ve won one of the last four games if they tried harder (Marmol seemed to not care towards the end).

But it’s only 1 win, certainly could be someone else’s fault but the manager. The roster just wasn’t there yet.

Even though the projection systems instructed me that the ceiling was 78 wins, I still went out on a limb and explained why I thought that they could outdo projections. VEB contributor TheRealAaron conducted a poll, and I answered 85 wins as a guess, I think? https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/post/D1CA4BCsr8rh <——————^

(I am not able to access the poll but I’m hoping he can chirp in on this one)

Well that was wrong! 85 wins?? How did I imagine such a thing? I thought Winn and Herrera would both hit 5 WAR seasons. That didn’t happen. Instead, the two players totalled under 4 WAR, that’s between the two. 6 WAR gone there.

I predicted that Burleson would also be a part of this surge, by being a 3.5 WAR player. That too was a bit pie in the sky, but I almost nailed it: he finished at 3.2 WAR.

I am going to temper my expectations going forward.

By consensus, projections thought the pitching staff would be worth about 8 WAR. I predicted 10 WAR. The Cardinals pitching staff, however, totalled 12.9 WAR. They were much better than even the most optimistic fans could hope for.

Well, it didn’t matter, 85 wins would not have squeaked into the postseason. A pass to the postseason in the NL in 2026 was 88 wins (Phillies). Funny though, it would’ve been better than the White Sox and Astros in the AL!

Methodology: I did not consider lowball projections like Vegas odds or Pecota whatsoever. I don’t consider either to be very predictive or relevant compared to the other systems we have now. I used the 4 projections systems ZiPS DC, Fangraphs DC, The Bat X, and OOPSY. This combo is what came up with the 78 wins ceiling. ZiPS ended up the closest of the 4, from what I’ve heard: 77 wins. Two of these systems are reliable, historically accurate for projecting statistics, and two are more Statcast based. I found it to be a nice blend.

Projections averaged a 2.8 consensus ceiling for JJ Wetherholt. Well, the rookie absolutely shattered that glass ceiling with his defensive prowess.

Let’s take a look at each player’s average projection, and what they actually did when it comes to Wins Above Replacement Level:

• Masyn Winn projected 3.45, was 2.3 WAR because his offense cratered (-1.15)

• Ivan Herrera projected at 2.75, only 1.4 WAR (-1.35)

• JJ Wetherholt 2.5 WAR, exceeded expectations with 4.6 WAR (+2.1)

• Alec Burleson 1.65 average WAR projection, but Burly blew that away by reaching 3.2 WAR (+1.55)

• Jordan Walker of course surprised here, projections said .9 WAR, but he reached 2.7 WAR (+1.8)

As you can tell, it’s not that hard for players to outdo projections, or let people down.

Where projections are strong is predicting the total WAR, not so much at the individual level. Of course statistics will get some stuff wrong when trying to project the future based on the many trackable measurements of the past, but in the aggregate, not too bad.

So what did the Cardinals as a team do then? The average positional projections: around 19 WAR. Reality: 15.6 WAR underperformed projections by over 3 wins. The rotation was worth about 5 wins over. I’m guessing that had a lot to do with our middle infield defense, and our pitchers being more of a groundball staff overall. Projections tend to have a hard time with that type of pitching staff.

• Andre Pallante projected at an average of 1.4 WAR, but was 2.7 WAR (groundball artist +1.3!)

• Dustin May 1.65 average WAR projection, reached 2.6 WAR (+1)

• Kyle Leahy 1.45… 2.6 WAR reality (+1.15!)

• Michael McGreevy projected to be at 1.75 WAR, 1.9 result (modest overachiever)

• Matthew Liberatore was supposed to be around 1.7 WAR, finished 1.1 (-.6)

While the chosen projection systems can seem a little wild, I should learn to trust them more (especially ZiPS!). They usually aren’t far off. Sure, some players are going to outdo statistical expectations. but others will underperform or get hurt. It all sort of evens out in the wash when it comes to numbers like this.

Next year, I will be more guarded especially with players like Winn and Herrera, and well, anyone that has a lot of defense involved as that can change from year to year. I don’t think we should detract much from defensive value in a single season, just that the number of chances to provide run prevention can vary a lot comparing different seasons.

While the team didn’t make the playoffs this year, they pushed the envelope winning about as many as they possibly could with this roster. They could have pushed more towards .500 with a better bullpen, or maybe even went over that threshold, but they probably would have missed the playoffs in the NL even with awesome relievers. If we somehow traded with the Padres and had the best bullpen, that would add 8 wins, ironically reaching my 85 win dream.

Winning teams aren’t built on bullpens and defense, they are bolstered by those. The meat and potatoes will always be the positional players and the starting pitchers. Keep building on that, and then put it over the top by adding some good relievers. You should always try to add in plus defense and run prevention, but you have to be able to hit above average on offense. That said, modestly upgrading to a mediocre bullpen instead of a poor one will make this team much more entertaining as it rebuilds. It can only help in the learning process for the young team, and be a boost to the morale while giving something more substantive for Cardinals Nation to root for.

1998: A Year In Music

Last week I gave a preview of what I’m about to drop this week, with a playlist of 1998 electronic music. I feel like going electronic is the theme for 1998. I don’t like normal electronic music, like house, four on the floor rave, or EDM. I like progressive, experimental, breakbeats, and IDM sounds. That means intelligent dance music, according to some journalist back in the 90s. That’s my kind of thing, even though it’s a dumb name for a genre.

I have now written about music spanning the years from 1975 to 1998. I have so much more to go! But I love this project, it has been rather enlightening. I’ll just get to listing what I like. No particular order:

Electronic Music

• Autechre – ‘LP5’ these English blokes had been around for a few years by this point, pushing the envelope. It is here on their signing to Nothing Records (NIN label) where they truly sounded like about 1000 years in the future in 1998.

• Amon Tobin – ‘Permutation’ definite “college soundtrack” source for George at SAIC in 1998-1999. Jazz through the lens of DJ methodology and culture, one of the key Ninja Tune (record label) releases.

• Mouse On Mars – ‘Glam’ progressive, genius level fun electronic music from Germany, they have made quite a career of it, even though hardly anyone has heard of them!

• Squarepusher – ‘Music Is Rotted One Note’ advanced electronic music meets jazz and experimental music! Thomas Jenkins is both a genius programmer and producer of music as well as a virtuoso jazz bassist… from the UK. One of my favorite artists.

• Acceleradeck – ‘Narcotic Beats’ progressive drum and bass sounds from… Birmingham, AL? Yes! This album is epically beautiful. Or is that beautifully epic. Both!

• Thomas Fehlmann – ‘Good Fridge’ a hidden gem of my research into 1998 electronic sounds!

• Hive – ‘Devious Methods’ one of the best drum and bass/jungle albums I’ve ever heard! this one was a rediscovery for me, I’ve owned so many albums over the years, I’m glad when they come back even though they’ve been lost.

• Muslimgauze – ‘Mullah Said’ my understanding is that this was an extremely prolific man who lived with his parents in the UK who made hundreds of albums under this moniker. I find the music scintillating.

• Rei Harakami – ‘Unrest’ this album sounds the opposite of the word unrest. If you want to calm the fuck down, put this album on and enjoy.

Rock/Alternative

• Don Caballero – ‘What Burns Never Returns’ one of the most important bands from America in the last several decades. Incredibly influential worldwide. From Pittsburgh via Chicago. They just got the band back together again, American Don lineup. Don’t sleep on ’em.

• All Natural Lemon and Lime Flavors – ‘Turning Into Small’ young geniuses from New Jersey! The band formed in 1993 as teenagers and by 1998 they were already pretty crazy good! If you like My Bloody Valentine, Stereolab, and inventive production techniques for the times.

• Unwound – ‘Challenge for a Civilized Society’ post everything punk rock from Olympia, WA

• Boredoms – ‘Super æ‘ the most psychedelic thing you ever heard 1998 Japan

• Thinking Plague – ‘In Extremis’ prog rock made a big comeback with this album as far as I’m concerned! back on the map! one of my favorite albums of all time. Denver based band. I don’t know why but whenever a band is really and truly memorable I always remember where they are from.

• Queens of the Stone Age – self titled debut While there was a split EP with Kyuss as the introduction to Queens of the Stone Age, the self titled was the first full length. The rest is history. This remains my favorite QotSA album but I enjoyed how each album after changed the sound completely. The b-sides are just as good as the original songs and I am very glad the remaster restructured the album to include those integral tracks.

• Secret Chiefs 3 – ‘Hurqalya:Second Grand Constitution and Bylaws’ guitarist Trey Spruance of Mr Bungle launched his own band here, and has never looked back despite his numerous side quests, production expertise and scholarly like disposition. A true master. The band would later to go on to form multiple bands under the same umbrella! World music for the end times.

• Massive Attack – ‘Mezzanine’ all time 1990s triphop classic from the UK! iykyk

• Tortoise – ‘TNT’ Chicago post-rock progenitors hit their stride! complex yet simple. easy listening but somehow acclerates the thinkening.

• Esthero – ‘That Girl’ hidden gem find, this might grow on me a lot! trip-hop genre straddler from Canada

• Sonic Youth – ‘A Thousand Leaves’ a more matured Sonic Youth at the top of their game but becoming even more melancholy.

• The Ex – ‘Starters, Alternators’ the best improvised post punk band from Amsterdam, need I say more?

• ewabraun – ‘sea sea’ rock and or roll! hint: wait until after a few minutes into the album before turning it off, this is a classic that will grow on you from listen to listen if you accept its wooly mammoth sound. (Poland)

• The Body Lovers – ‘1 of 3’ abstract weirdness/Swans side project! it is very good. Soundtracky. (NYC)

Hip-hop/rap

• Gang Starr – ‘Moment of Truth’ all time classic! If you like hiphop, need to know.

• Aceyalone – ‘A Book Of Human Language’ one of the most overlooked hip hop albums of all time! Very highly recommended.

Go Devil Rays! Thanks for reading.