How much did Man City's rule breaking cost your team?

Imagine a world where Manchester City had not used “sham contracts” to build a team capable of winning three Premier League titles, one FA Cup and three EFL Cups.

If City were the winners, then there had to be losers.

Not just those teams who finished runners-up or lost cup finals.

The potential impact runs much deeper and includes missed Champions League qualification, relegation and Premier League prize money.

Thirty-five other teams played in the English top flight between 2009 and 2018.

And every one could in some way claim to have been left financially out of pocket.

City, of course, continue to deny any wrongdoing and they have appealed. But as it stands they are guilty of all charges related to inflating their sponsorship income to the tune of £830m, plus another £90m in expenses.

Strip that money out and it changes the whole complexion of the competition.

BBC Sport has crunched the numbers to assess the potential financial impact on the top flight.

How the figures are worked out

When Sheikh Mansour bought Manchester City in 2008 they were far removed from the club you see today.

Since finishing fifth in 1991-92, the last season before the formation of the Premier League, City’s highest placing had been eighth in 2004-05.

The Abu Dhabi money poured in via what the Premier League’s independent commission described as a “disguised funding scheme”. It took the club’s sponsorship revenues from being on a par with Stoke City in 2008-09 to eventually overtaking those of Manchester United.

City finished fifth in 2009-10. Since then, not once have they finished outside the top four in the Premier League.

Did this money deny other clubs a place in the competition, and other kinds of success?

This article is not trying to set out how much compensation a team might be able to claim.

Nor is it saying any one team would definitely have avoided relegation or reached the Champions League.

It is about chance, the possibility that a very different City team would have taken to the field without the hundreds of millions pumped in by the club’s Abu Dhabi owners.

It has not considered potential future earnings from success, including sponsors’ bonuses and further prize money.

Nor has it factored in players who may feel they have missed out on salary increases, or triggered payments, for how their club might have performed.

This is purely about domestic impact:

• Lost prize money by league placing

• Missed potential Champions League earnings

• Europa League payments

• Loss of Premier League status

• Impact of cup final defeats

• What Manchester’s ‘super-profit’ deal with City owners has paid out so far

How City gained £1.17bn, and others may have lost £799.5m

The full impact of City’s behaviour on other clubs could be calculated at £844m.

• £188.2m in Premier League placing money

• £349.7m in relegation costs

• £217.8m in missed Champions League prize money

• £88.3m related to domestic cup competitions and the Europa League

We calculated these figures by taking published prize money from the relevant seasons.

For Premier League place money, each team that finished below City is considered to have potentially missed a payment for one place.

For relegation, this is the minimum value of being in the Premier League for the next season, minus the received parachute payment.

For the Champions League, we took City’s earnings from the following seasons and deducted the impacted teams’ Europa League prize money.

But City also earned prize money themselves during this period.

Across the competitions, City were paid £1.17bn:

• £812.3m from the Premier League – total income from prize money and broadcast revenues

• £363.4m via the Champions League

• £900,000 from the FA Cup victory

• £300,000 from the three EFL Cup victories

The most impacted: How Spurs could have missed out on £120m

“We have lived through a period of deception,” former Tottenham Hotspur boss Mauricio Pochettino said last month.

“No type of punishment will make it possible to repair what was done.”

You can see his point. Spurs finished one place outside the Champions League positions in four (though one only was under Pochettino) of the eight seasons in which City qualified for Europe’s elite competition.

BBC Sport took City’s earnings from the Champions League in the following season, and deducted Tottenham’s Europa League prize money.

Over the four seasons Spurs missed out, Manchester City earned £148.2m from the Champions League, with Tottenham taking £29.9m from the Europa League.

The 2014-15 campaign led to the biggest deficit, as City finished second in the Premier League and Tottenham came fifth. City received £71.2m for reaching the Champions League semi-finals in the following season, but Spurs were only paid £17.7m from the Europa League – a difference of £53.5m.

Spurs also finished behind City in the Premier League table six times, with the cumulative prize money difference worth £6.6m.

The north Londoners did benefit in the 2013-14 season, as they only qualified for Europe because City beat Sunderland in the final of the EFL Cup.

Spurs gained £5.1m from their 2014-15 Europa League campaign which would not have been possible without City’s success.

Taking into account all competitions, that produced a net financial loss for Spurs of £119.9m.

Did City’s EFL Cup win cost Liverpool £37.8m?

The 2015-16 EFL Cup final proved to be decisive for Liverpool’s hopes of European football.

Jurgen Klopp’s men lost to City on penalties following a 1-1 draw. The Europa League place transferred to the league, and went to West Ham United.

Liverpool only finished eighth, which was not enough to qualify for Europe.

Had Liverpool won the final, they would have entered the Europa League, and this provides a key financial comparison.

Manchester United won the Europa League in 2016-17, receiving prize money of £37.8m. As part of that amount, the Red Devils’ market pool payment, which is based upon the value of the television rights, was £26.6m.

While we cannot say for certain that Liverpool would have won the Europa League, they were a club of similar stature to Manchester United, which provides a comparison.

The market pool share may also have been slightly lower with both Liverpool and Manchester United involved.

Together with Premier League place money of £10.6m – Liverpool finished below City in all nine relevant seasons – the total financial impact on the Merseyside club was £48.5m.

As for the FA Cup, City won it just once in the period they were scrutinised over, beating Stoke in 2010-11. The difference in prize money was £900,000, with the runners-up going into the Europa League.

Did two relegations cost Hull City £99m?

While parachute payments provide something of a cushion, relegation from the Premier League is still a considerable financial hit.

Could the teams who finished in 18th place, one spot from safety, argue that they might have stayed up but for City?

There are a couple of ways of looking at this.

Firstly, the results against City who took at least four points off every 18th-placed team other than Birmingham.

Secondly, the mere fact that City were able to assemble a squad far better than their finances should have allowed. Could they otherwise have been involved in relegation battles?

Again, this is not to say City would have been relegated. It is about chance.

BBC Sport has taken the total prize money earned by the team finishing in 20th in the following season. That suggests a minimum return for having stayed in the top flight.

Deducted from that is the first season of parachute payments to give a net amount.

Hull were relegated twice in the period, costing the Tigers £93.78m.

The Tigers finished below City in the table four times, adding £5.2m in place money to the sum.

It leaves the East Yorkshire club as the second-most impacted on £99m.

Swansea are third in the table with £63.1m. Of that total, £54m is from relegation and £9.1m in place money from the seven seasons the Swans were in the top flight.

Newcastle suffered relegation by finishing 18th in 2015-16, costing them a projected £60.4m, of which £7.9m was place money.

Norwich (£43.8m), Wigan (£39.6m), Burnley (£31.1m), Bolton (£26.4m) and Birmingham (£25.1m) also suffered relegations in 18th place.

The loss of Champions League money

Alongside Tottenham, four other teams missed out on Champions League football by one place across the eight seasons when City qualified.

The biggest impact was on Chelsea, who finished fifth in 2017-18.

City earned £79.2m from reaching the quarter-finals of the Champions League, with Chelsea getting £39.4m from winning the Europa League. That left Chelsea with a deficit of £39.8m.

Also just missing out on the Champions League were Everton (5th in 2013-14, £32.6m deficit), and Arsenal (5th in 2016-17, £22.1m deficit).

The only team not to experience much of a financial impact were Manchester United, who were fifth in 2015-16.

City got no further than the round of 16 in the Champions League, earning £42.6m, while United won the Europa League that season, receiving £37.8m. It left the Red Devils with a deficit of £4.8m.

The cumulative cost of league places

In the Premier League there is no specific prize pot for being crowned champions.

Broadcast revenue is allocated on a merit basis by final league position.

It is a 1+1 system, so the club in 20th get the base payment. Then the team in 19th get the base payment two times. For 18th, it is that base amount three times, and so on.

It means that the only financial difference, in prize money at least, for the team finishing runners-up in one of Manchester City’s three title-winning seasons is one base payment.

Could any team claim they might have finished one place higher?

The value of a Premier League place rose sharply in line with the broadcast deals over the period of City’s offences.

In 2010-11 it was £755,881 per place, and by 2016-17 it was up to £1.94m.

If any compensation were to be considered, Everton, Liverpool and Stoke City would have the biggest claim of £10.7m, having finished below City in all nine seasons.

West Brom and West Ham’s total is £9.9m, with Swansea on £9.1m.

At the other end of the scale are the seven clubs who spent one season in the Premier League, including Blackpool (£756,756), Portsmouth (£800,424) and Huddersfield (£1.93m).

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