Rays In ALCS, Brewers In NLCS Hold 2026 Statistical Edges

The Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers hold statistical edges in their respective 2026 ALCS and NLCS matchups. Not surprising, since they both compiled the best records in each league.

What is a surprise, as pointed out by Forbes.com Senior Contributor Barry M. Bloom, is that three lower-payroll clubs are still alive. The combined 2026 payrolls of Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and the Cleveland Guardians of $360.5 million is well behind the Los Angeles Dodgers’ hefty $433 million payroll.

The Rays finished 98-64 for the best record in the American League. In their ALCS matchup against the Cleveland Guardians, they held a regular-season advantage in 33 of 45 statistical matchups with one tie. Each club had 58 batters hit by pitches during the regular season.

Cleveland won the AL Central with an 85-77 record, one game better than the Chicago White Sox. Chicago swept the AL West champion Houston Astros, 2-0, in a wild-card matchup and took a 2-0 lead over Cleveland in the AL Division Series. Then Jose Ramirez’s hitting helped the Guardians win three in a row to advance to the ALCS.

The Brewers’ 103-59 record led the National League. Their NLCS matchup against Los Angeles is closer, according to regular-season stats. Milwaukee had better numbers in 27 of 45 categories.

The defending two-time World Series champion Dodgers won the AL West at 100-62, nine games ahead of the San Diego Padres, then beat the Atlanta Braves in a four-game NLDS. The Braves had edged the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game wild-card series.

San Diego swept the Chicago Cubs, 2-0, in the wild card, then fell to Milwaukee in a four-game NLDS.

Let’s look at regular-season numbers for the remaining four teams, keeping in mind that numbers do not always tell a complete story. The Dodgers and Guardians are out to prove Mark Twain correct. The writer would obviously not be a fan of analytics as he often wrote: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Guardians Vs. Rays

The Rays won the season series, 5-1, outscoring Cleveland, 20-8. Five of the games were close, however. Three of the Tampa Bay wins were shutouts as the Guardians batted only .170 against Rays pitchers. Tampa Bay hit .242 in the six games.

The Guardians’ lone win was at home, 3-1, on April 29 as Gavin Williams allowed only an earned run over 7 1/3 innings, striking out nine without a walk. Chase DeLauter had a two-run single among Cleveland’s nine hits.

The only blowout was the Rays’ 11-3 win at home on July 24. Ryan Vilade hit a two-run homer off Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo and former Guardian Richie Palacios had a three-run homer off Hunter Gaddis. Catcher Nick Fortes went 4-for-4 while Chandler Simpson, Cedric Mullins and Jonny Deluca all had two hits for the Rays.

Shane McClanahan got the win. The lefty starter has not pitched since Sept. 3 and is not on the playoff roster due to a forearm injury.

Guardians, Rays 2026 Hitting

Guardians, Rays 2026 Pitching

Guardians, Rays 2026 Fielding

Brewers Vs. Dodgers

The Brewers won three of four in Los Angeles to take the season series, 4-3. The Dodgers dominated most head-to-head stats, thanks to 11-3 and 5-1 wins in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee pitching was ghastly in the 11-3 loss at Miller Park on May 23, allowing 11 walks and 10 hits, five of them for extra bases. Teoscar Hernandez had six RBI for the Dodgers on a three-run homer and two singles. Roki Sasaki and four relivers combined to strike out 11 Brewers – Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers three times apiece.

Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski fanned six over six innings in a 4-1 win at Dodger Stadium on Aug. 15, putting his record at 12-5. William Contreras and Joey Ortiz each hit two-run homers.

Overall in the regular-season matchups, Milwaukee had the better batting average, .228 to .188, but the Dodgers had more power with 7 homers, 6 doubles and 3 triples to the Brewers’ 3 homers, 9 doubles and 0 triples.

Dodgers, Brewers 2026 Hitting

Dodgers, Brewers 2026 Pitching

Dodgers, Brewers 2026 Fielding

Tonight in Cleveland

The Guardians send left-hander Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA) to the mound against Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA).

Griffin was great in his first playoff outing, fanning seven over 2 2/3 innings of relief in Chicago in Cleveland’s must-win Game 3. Acquired at the trade deadline from Washington, he went 3-3 with a 5.19 ERA in nine starts for Cleveland. He was 12-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 22 starts for the Nationals in his return to MLB after three years in Japan.

In one start against the Dodgers for Washington, he gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision, walking five, fanning six.

Rasmussen flirted with a no-hitter in a tense 1-0 win over the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the AL Division Series. In eight innings, he walked two, struck out 10 and gave up only a two-out double to Austin Wells in the eighth.

Against Cleveland in 2026, Rasmussen went 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts, striking out 15 over 12 innings. The loss was in Cleveland when he gave up three runs (two earned) over five innings.

It will be tough to match the intensity of Milwaukee’s 2-1 win Sunday night in Game 1 of the NLCS. Cleveland’s long-suffering fans will be ready to roar, however, as they will try to cheer their underdog team to a quick start.

Only the Dodgers among the four remaining teams have won a World Series since Cleveland last prevailed way back in 1948. The team made it back but lost in 1954, 1995, 1997 and 2016.

The Milwaukee Brewers are trying to get back to a second World Series, losing in 1982. The Rays are seeking their third Series, losing in 2008 and 2020. The Dodgers are trying to return for a chance to be the first ballclub to win it all three times in a row since the Yankees in 1998, 1999 and 2000.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com