Through almost five weeks of the season, we know one thing about the Super Bowl LXI matchup: There are plenty of possible options.
So, when we say that Monday Night Football’s tilt between the Bills and Rams could be a Super Bowl preview, it’s because they’re the current betting favorites (both at +350) to win the AFC and NFC, respectively. However, that exacta is still as long as 20-1.
If you’re not willing to rely on the 4% chance that we see these two, on this field, on February 14 (or maybe you have other plans that day?), grab yourself a box of chocolates for a game that we’re expecting to love.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles (-3.5, 54.5)
To say the favorites in the AFC, at 3-1, could be 0-4 would be disingenuous since Buffalo opened the gates of new Highmark Stadium by blowing the doors off of the Lions in Week 2. However, Detroit’s defense hasn’t exactly improved its standing in the league since that Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bills were a dropped-interception away from losing Week 1, played like a team that should have lost in Week 3 (turning the ball over five times), then actually did lose to the Patriots last week.
Per usual, the Bills are scoring, with Josh Allen already at seven rushing touchdowns, but after the first two games where they ranked first in adjusted/weighted offensive EPA/Play, they’ve fallen to 19th in both over Week 3 and 4. That’s concerning, considering the offense was the relative-certainty for Buffalo.
More NFL
The revamped defense is what we’re supposed to be waiting on before deciding if the Bills are the Super Bowl contender that futures markets assert they are. However you slice it in the advanced metrics, though, Buffalo’s in the bottom-quarter of the NFL so far, and heads out on the road for the first time since christening its new crib.
The Rams are a tough team to assess in the advanced metrics, since they’re already-high air mile-count can’t be ignored, having gone to Australia, back home to L.A., to the mile-high elevation of Denver on a short week, and then cross-country to Philadelphia.
A jet-lagged effort against the 49ers, withering just enough in the second half against the Broncos and a sloppy start in the rain against the Eagles, can poison the numbers, but the Rams are still top-five in the same metrics we referenced above. L.A.’s defensive numbers have taken the hit, though, as the Rams are in the bottom-half of the league.
Bet on the Los Angeles Rams to cover the spread at sportsbooks
While the addition of Myles Garrett hasn’t taken shape just yet, at least Aaron Donald re-returns on Monday night, and the Rams have otherwise been healthy on that side of the ball.
Playing with a little extra rest, with whatever might have lingered from flying to Australia and back in their rearview, in just their second home game of the season, we should expect the Rams’ fully-formed offense to score one more touchdown than the Bills.
Bet: Rams -3.5
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 27: Ty Johnson #26 of the Buffalo Bills on the field before a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Highmark Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Timothy T Ludwig via Getty Images)
Player props
Rb Ty Johnson over 10.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365)
After missing the first two games of the season, Josh Allen’s third-down safety blanket returned against the Chargers with four catches for 50 yards, and that’s not including a long catch-and-run touchdown that was called back on a holding penalty.
Then last week, Ty Johnson had two catches. With one going for 9 yards, had the other gone for so much as 2 yards, he’d have cleared this total. Last season, Johnson only had one reception for negative yardage, and it was against the Patriots, and even that didn’t stop him from going over 10.5 — something he did on 10 of the last 12 games in 2025.
WR Khalil Shakir longest pass reception under 19.5 yards (-116, DraftKings)
Shakir had been something of an afterthought in the Bills offense this season, with the addition of DJ Moore, Keon Coleman emerging, and Dalton Kincaid a featured player. Shakir’s caught 15 total passes, and just one of them has been for longer than 20 yards. That’s a 50% hit rate, ahead of a pace of 7-for-16 that Shakir had without those three pass-catchers in front of him in the pecking order for Allen last season.
TE Tyler Higbee over 22.5 receiving yards (-111, DraftKings)
Terrance Ferguson was on the come-up as a Rams’ pass-catching priority before going down early in Week 3 at Denver. Since then, Matthew Stafford, who has a plethora of tight end options on the Rams roster, has used veteran Tyler Higbee as the primary pass-catcher of that group. Higbee has had eight catches for 62 yards and five for 67. In what should be another game requiring offensive urgency, he should get at least half that yardage against the Bills.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 04: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills carries the ball against Marcus Jones #25 of the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Bryan M. Bennett via Getty Images)
Anytime TD scorers
RB James Cook (-120, FanDuel)
If Cook was on any other team, he might lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, but Allen has run behind Dion Dawkins for most of his seven scores, which has skewed how likely it is that Cook scores in our minds’ eye.
Including a receiving touchdown in a game where he didn’t run one in, Cook scored in nine regular-season games last season. That would equate to a fair price of just over -110, but when you add in his three games with a touchdown so far this season, and factor that a game with this high of a total should mean a higher probability of scoring for everyone, there’s some value here. Even more so if Josh Allen’s already battling some nagging injuries that make him quicker to hand if off to Cook near the goal line.
RB Ty Johnson (+700, DraftKings)
Let’s make Johnson our long shot on the Bills, especially if Allen finds himself in a rare trailing game state against the best opponent that Buffalo has faced this season, requiring him to throw more.
WR Davante Adams (+100, FanDuel)
Puka Nacua came back last week, but it doesn’t mean that Davante Adams isn’t still the best red zone target on the Rams.
Last week in the rain, there weren’t touchdown passes for any of the Rams. But against a porous Bills’ pass defense, the roster dynamic that led to Adams going 9-5 in “anytime” touchdowns in 2025 returns. He scored twice in the one home game the Rams have had.
WR Tutu Atwell (17-1, DraftKings)
With so much necessary attention on Nacua and Adams, there should be a coverage bust or two that Stafford can take advantage of, so it’s just a matter of which tertiary receiver is the target on the deep shots.
Upgrade to Fantasy Plus and gain your edge in player projections and much more
Early this season, it seems like Konata Mumpfield (+700) is the one whose snaps are most affected by Nacua’s availability.
Tutu Atwell, reacquired in late August after he signed with Miami in the offseason, has seen action in two games, catching just two of three targets, but as Sean McVay said when they made the trade, Atwell “provides a speed element” — something that’s most likely to show up on the fast track at SoFi Stadium against the Bills.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.