Week 7 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for Ohio State-Indiana and Saturday's other big games

You have to earn your way into this weekly file, and when it comes to Week 7, if you didn’t have your stuff together in Week 6, you’re an afterthought — because Oct.17 has been circled on college football fans’ calendars for months now. 

Week 6 was a bit of a shoulder-shrugger, as we went 2-3-1 against the number, but at least grabbing Alabama at +3 in the summer “paid off” in the form of a refund when Georgia edged the Crimson Tide, with the help of a blatant pass interference going uncalled on the Bulldogs. 

Interestingly, as an indicator of the state of the college football regular season, not much moved with regards to either school’s odds in the futures market. Georgia (+500) is still the third choice for the national championship and Alabama (+900) remains not far behind. Plus, they’re still the top-two favorites for the SEC title. 

Who did make a move in Week 6? Who shook things up?

Movers 

A weekend of head-scratching coaching decisions in pro and college football hit Eugene as Oregon went for a 2-point conversion on its first touchdown (a 1-yard drive), and spent the rest of the afternoon chasing it (from further away than they were supposed to at times), in one of the least aesthetically-pleasing games of the season.

In a weird twist in the Crosstown Rivalry, it turns out USC did UCLA a favor by knocking out Oregon’s Dante Moore, setting up a Dylan Raiola start, where he completed six (of 19) passes and turned the ball over three times. Now the 5-0 Bruins’ path opens wide for a possible College Football Playoff berth (+115), which may, appropriately, come down to the game with the Trojans at the Rose Bowl. Unfortunately, the next hurdle may come without their starting quarterback, as Nico Iamaleava is “out indefinitely.”

As long as 4-to-1 to make the CFP, Oklahoma saved its season in the Red River Rivalry, stunning No. 1 Texas — a possibility we put forth last week. The Sooners cashed on the moneyline, thanks to defense and special teams. 

Those two units have been Iowa’s specialty forever, so cruising to 40 points in Friday’s upset win over Washington was a surprise. At +375 to make the CFP, without a currently-ranked team other than No. 25 Northwestern on the Hawkeyes’ remaining schedule, why are they that much less likely than UCLA to sneak into the top 12?

Shakers

Oklahoma wasn’t the only one to cause a shake-up in the SEC. 

Kentucky just keeps taking down teams that are allegedly better than them (with 2-point conversions in overtime), and, as a result, LSU now has two losses, with four more ranked teams to play. The Tigers are -250 to miss the CFP, meaning there’s a 71% chance that Lane Kiffin won’t be coaching in the playoffs again this year.

South Carolina fans should be thoroughly annoyed. A blowout win at Florida does more to hurt the Gators (now -1000 to miss the CFP) than it does to anything for the 3-3 Gamecocks, because they waited too long to get their act together. 

The money-line upset of the week came in the Group-of-Six. Buffalo started the week as 21-point underdogs at Toledo, and while the market sniffed that line out as too high, dropping the Rockets to -18.5, the Bulls won convincingly as +800 underdogs, further jumbling the MAC. 

Betting the big games for Week 7

This is the space for the big games of the week. Until teams take a loss or two, you never know what early-season game is going to end up mattering more than we initially thought. We still have very few in-season data points to go off, but there’s enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 7.

No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5, 51) at No. 5 Indiana 

Indiana escaped being a “shakee” with a comeback win over Nebraska, while Ohio State joined the long line of teams that have smoked Maryland, and Jeremiah Smith is up to -220 in the Heisman Trophy betting market. 

There’s no reason to change the already-high market rating on the Buckeyes in the weeks since they blew a three-score lead at Texas, so shifting this spread from around pick-em — where it was in the summer — to making the Hoosiers home underdogs, is entirely a sell on Indiana. 

That’s quite the reversal, since Indiana took enough money heading into last Saturday that the Hooisers closed as 9-point road favorites in Lincoln.

Bet Indiana to cover the spread at sportsbooks now

We could sell a narrative about Indiana looking ahead to this week — the biggest game in Bloomington, maybe ever — but last week we cited Indiana and Ohio State’s metrics as negligible, and nothing’s changed.

Two really good teams should be lined close to a pick-em, but in Bloomington, this line implies the Buckeyes are roughly a full touchdown better. 

Bet: Indiana +3.5

No. 6 Alabama (-8.5, 52.5) at No. 14 Tennessee

No, Alabama didn’t win on Saturday, but if the pollsters aren’t going to drop it, and the betting market isn’t going to downgrade the Tide, not only is a top-15 matchup going to make our list, but Alabama’s loss also creates urgency not to take a second ‘L’. 

Before the season, “Game of the Year” lines had the Crimson Tide as a 1.5-point favorite in Knoxville, but there are three “changes” to how this game should be perceived:

1. Hopes for the quarterback position at Tennessee were high as bettors waited to see which of Faizon Brandon and George MacIntyre, but neither has turned out to be any good. 

2. Alabama’s new quarterback and last year’s inability to run, tamped down its market rating, but Keelon Russell has been outstanding and 18 carries for 116 rushing yards against Georgia is a lot different than two games worth of 33-for-97 (2.9 YPC) last season.

3. Alabama might have been in the position of coming down from a home win over Georgia in a letdown spot here, but that’s no longer a concern.

Having already won big on the road at Kentucky (before we knew they were good), and Mississippi State (at the height of their perception), Alabama can do so again.

Bet: Alabama -8.5

No. 13 Missouri at No. 9 Ole Miss (-6, 59.5)

It’s not Lane Kiffin, but QB Austin Simmons has a return of his own to Oxford, and after back-to-back home wins over Florida and Texas A&M, he might be bringing a team with him. 

The Tigers followed up their upset win over Florida by not having a let down against Texas A&M, but the Gators’ loss hurts the perception of the former, and whatever test you want to use to judge Marcel Reed’s play (eye, numbers, etc.), he’s failing it. 

After a week off after the Rebels’ loss in The Swamp, Ole Miss regrouped in the form of a 42-3 lead into halftime at Vanderbilt. 

Bet on the Ole Miss Rebels to cover the spread at sportsbooks now

Pete Golding should have a thorough scouting report on Simmons, and while the market rating hasn’t changed on either side, this should be the spot where the Ole Miss offense beats a Tigers’ unit that’s faced only one-dimensional units so far this season, in its toughest road environment of the year.

Bet: Ole Miss -6

No. 15 Kentucky at Oklahoma (-7, 43.5)

When the dust cleared on Saturday, Kentucky and Oklahoma were the biggest winners of the day, but each now has to get up after an emotional win for what amounts to a quasi-playoff game, since a loss here undoes last week’s upset win. 

How much can Kentucky possibly have left after back-to-back overtime wins — a 17-point comeback at South Carolina and field-storming upset over LSU? 

The Wildcats being 8.5-point underdogs at home to the banged-up Tigers never made much sense, but they did get a punt return touchdown, and running back CJ Baxter mostly carried the Kentucky offense. Putting the team on his back again, against one of the best defenses in the country, in what should be a revitalized Norman, Oklahoma, is a tall task. 

Kentucky’s still two games away from getting a much-needed bye, while Oklahoma had theirs before the Red River game, and should still be pretty fresh with its season back on track. With a projected line of OU -11 prior to last week’s results, it looks like UK is getting the bigger bump off an upset. 

Bet: Oklahoma -7

No. 18 Oklahoma State at No. 20 Houston (-4.5, 61.5)

The further we get away from it, the more “Tulsa over Oklahoma State” (in the fashion that the Golden Hurricane won, holding the Cowboys’ offense to 10 points) might be the outlier result of the season. 

Since then, Oklahoma State’s offense has righted itself. From Week 2 through Week 6, the Cowboys are right atop the Big 12 — first in standard down success rate and second to Utah in standard down EPA/Play (ahead of Houston in both categories). 

The winner gets the inside track at a surprise conference title appearance, with one more big game on tap for each. We’ve got this projected at Houston -3, so getting more than a field goal is how we’ll play the Big 12 game of the day. 

Bet: Oklahoma State +4.5

No. 2 Notre Dame (-10, 47.5) at No. 8 BYU 

Of course, the biggest game with regards to the Big 12’s perception, and the possibility the conference gets a second team into the CFP, is Week 7’s feature presentation. 

Through Week 6, Notre Dame’s estimated market rating of 95 (out of 100) at THE WINDOW is just shy of Indiana (98) by the end of its 2025 national championship, and Ohio State by the end of its 2024 title season. Theoretically, if the Irish go on the road and cover in Provo, we can go ahead and pencil Notre Dame in for their first title in almost 40 years. 

Maybe that’s the type of team we’re talking about, and our tickets on the Irish at 7-to-1 would be more than into that idea, but the overarching question before Notre Dame plays BYU and Miami is, “How would we know?”

The best of the six Irish wins came against Wisconsin, at Purdue and at North Carolina. 

The Irish beat the Badgers 41-13, despite only out-gaining them 350-284, converting a 13-yard drive after a kick-off was muffed, getting a 55-yard pick-six and running up the score with a 28-yard touchdown pass late. 

The Irish (4-2 ATS) won, but didn’t cover, in Chapel Hill, with a more flattering boxscore. 

BYU has covered all five games this season, an indication that the betting market (estimated market rating of 73) is still slow to give the Cougars credit. Perhaps, because it rarely looks good with QB Bear Bachmeier, even though he hasn’t lost to anyone other than peak Texas Tech in 2025. 

Bet the BYU Cougars to cover the spread at sportsbooks

Bachmeier doesn’t turn the ball over, with just eight interceptions on 503 career pass attempts, which should minimize the chances of the Irish defense scoring. 

Without star tailback LJ Martin, BYU’s ceiling is capped, and pulling off the upset will be that much of a tougher task, but at home in what should be a grinder, getting double-digits with the chronically underrated team is the play.

Bet: BYU +10

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.