My last three NFL bets were all lost in overtime. The Los Angeles Rams getting a potential game-winning kick blocked in OT, the Atlanta Falcons allowing a last-drive touchdown and two-point conversion to force overtime, and then a touchdown drive to start overtime, and the Commanders being unable to manage the clock in overtime and settling for a tie against the New York Giants.
That was a brutal combination of good wagers and bad beats, consistently beating the number but getting the wrong side of results. This is the beauty and the pain in sports betting. It sucks to deal with it, it does happen and should even out in the long term, and the beauty is the ability to get back to work and find more spots where we can gain value with strong CLV. So I will quickly shed the feelings of bad beats and focus on being proactive more than reactive. Here are two bets I think will gain CLV for Week 6 and give us a better chance of winning than losing.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 40.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The main part of this handicap is trying to get the Buccaneers quarterback situation correct to secure value. Is Baker Mayfield going to play? Mayfield was reported out 3 to 6 weeks with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. He has missed two games already. While Baker should be slated to miss at least one more game, reports from Tampa Bay beat writers suggest Mayfield is pushing to play and be put back in.
However, the discussion this week will revolve around his ability to grip the football. I am of the opinion Mayfield has an outside chance of playing this week, and it will be Jalon Daniels taking the snaps at quarterback again this week against a veteran and experienced Steelers defense. On this information alone, the current line at -3 should move off of the 3 to at least -3.5 or more, which represents a large value given the key number. I would price this at Steelers -3.8 with Daniels in.
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Sometimes finding an edge can be as simple as scouting the injury news and forecasting it correctly. Take the Steelers before Wednesday’s practice reports come out of Baker (hopefully) not throwing yet.
Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
2. Seattle Seahawks (-3, 41) at Denver Broncos
Targeting “Thursday Night Football” means we can take an early look at NFL player props. Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is averaging 19.4 completions per game, and this season takes on a short week game against a Seattle defense that ranks top two in passing yards allowed to opponents.
This is also a potential rain game with about a 50% chance of precipitation, per current weather reports. But beyond the primary passing metrics of the offense and opposing defense, this is a handicap in the playcalling change for the Denver Broncos. Head coach Sean Payton recently took over playcalling responsibilities from offensive coordinator Davis Webb.
I remember watching the first Broncos game of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs in primetime on Monday Night, and at halftime Payton was interviewed and said the team needed to run the ball more and stick with the run game despite a deficit. That was notable, and one of the immediate results of Payton calling plays was RB J.K. Dobbins having 18 carries in Week 5 after averaging just 11.5 in Weeks 1-4.
The Seahawks defense just allowed a robust 4.8 yards per carry to the SF 49ers, and I expect more of the same this week with the Broncos trying to jump-start their offense with the run game. Combined with the low total, a strong pass defense and a chance of rain, the best angle to correlate all these plays is a Bo Nix completions under.
Bet: Bo Nix under 21.5 completions
I also got close to including the New Orleans Saints ML, but the number has moved quite a bit from underdog to being -110 on the moneyline. The early-week market has supported the Saints. I am not sure if the number continues to run. Consider betting Saints now if you like it, otherwise check back in a few days.